赴美生子倒查六年，外籍学校还能活吗？｜Birth Tourism Squeezed Out：Can These Schools Survive?

特朗普政府查赴美生子，开始倒查六年了。现在美国国务院要求驻外机构审查从2020年起的部分签证和旅行记录，寻找涉嫌“生育旅游”的案例。已经生完、回国好几年的家庭，也可能被重新审查。

后果很严重，会吊销签证。美国国务院8月公布，已撤销超过600份相关签证，包括申请时说去度假，入境几天后就分娩的案例。如果以旅游名义隐瞒真实出行目的，就可能面临签证被撤销的风险。

还有很多人反馈，最近去美国生娃，孕妇入境后只获准停留15天的。这类情况并非最近才出现，也不是统一的新规定，但对准备待产、生娃、坐月子的家庭，15天足够把整套计划打乱。

父母签证被撤销，不等于孩子的美国国籍随之取消。但准备赴美生子的家庭，确实得重新算账一下：为了给孩子美宝身份，以后自己可能都签证吊销去不了美国了，出差、旅游都不行，值吗？

我预估一下，本来想要赴美生子的家庭，看到这一新政，可能百分之七八十心里都会打退堂鼓。

不过作为一个在上海国际学校行业搬砖多年的人，我更关心另一个问题：如果新增美宝越来越少，一些外籍学校以后招谁？

按我接触的申请情况(作为惠灵顿的前招生官&独立教育顾问)，上海有些学校的美宝、港宝申请人加起来，可能接近一半。据我知道，很多外籍学校对双非美宝家庭的生源依赖很高，这个政策一下子影响百分之几十的生源。

影响不会明天就出现。今年少出生的孩子，会先影响两三年后的幼儿园招生，再逐届传到小学。少招一届幼儿园，损失的可能是后面十几年的连续就读，以及弟弟妹妹的申请。

我的判断是，最热门的头部学校依然有优势，马太效应还会继续。合资格生源变少，家长反而可能更集中地选择品牌和口碑稳的学校，压力不会平均分配。比如SAS，这两年双非美宝身份还是蛮难进的，很多家庭都拿了waiting pool转不了正，更别说直接收拒信的了。

但其他学校需要思变。一个班从20人变成15人，学费收入少了四分之一，老师、校舍和课程成本却没法跟着减四分之一。继续原配置，成本吃紧；减师资、减选修，又可能影响续读。

所以，很多学校会更主动，也会更愿意重新审视自己的申请流程。以前申请人充足，材料不齐可以先放一边；以后面对一个比较符合招生范围、只是手续尚在办理的家庭，学校有没有可能多沟通一步，提前评估，或者在允许范围内留出补件时间？甚至对部分材料不卡得那么死？我已经观察到了一些现象。

对家庭来说，变化也不只是坏消息。

当学校需要更认真地争取每一个合适的学生，家长获得的沟通空间就会增加。过去一句“材料齐了再来”，已经慢慢开始变成先把家庭情况、学生的成绩状况、申请类别和时间安排逐项弄清楚，给到一个更弹性的解决方案。

这也是为什么，“我们这种身份是不是完全没机会”，往往不能只凭一句话回答。孩子和父母各自的证件、居留情况、所在城市、目标学校，放在一起看，才知道有没有可能有弹性。

赴美生子收紧，不会让外籍学校集体消失，但可能迫使一些学校告别“生源会自己源源不断上门”的日子。学校会更仔细地研究自己还能服务哪些家庭，家庭也需要重新核对自己的选择。

最近在考虑外籍学校、又一直被身份和材料问题劝退的家庭，可以和小助手预约，先把具体情况梳理清楚。比起听一句“肯定能进”或者“肯定没戏”，我们咨询一下，可以评估出来，到底是哪一项条件没有对上。

The Trump administration’s crackdown on birth tourism now reaches six years into the past. The State Department has instructed overseas posts to examine selected visa and travel records dating back to 2020. Families who gave birth in the US and returned home years ago could face renewed scrutiny.

The consequences include visa revocation. In August, the State Department announced more than 600 related revocations, including cases where travellers claimed to be holidaymakers but gave birth days after arrival. Concealing the real purpose of a trip behind a tourism claim could cost parents their visas.

Families also reported pregnant travellers being admitted for just 15 days. This isn’t entirely new or a blanket rule, but two weeks can derail plans for childbirth.

Losing a parent’s visa doesn’t cancel the child’s US citizenship. Still, families must reconsider the trade-off: is securing that citizenship worth losing their own ability to visit the US for business or holidays? My guess is that 70–80% of those considering the trip would now have second thoughts.

After years working in Shanghai’s international-school sector, my question is: if fewer US-born children enter the pipeline, whom will some schools recruit?

Based on applications I’ve encountered as an admissions officer back at Wellington and now as an education consultant, US-born and Hong Kong-born children can account for nearly half the applicants at some Shanghai schools. A decline in those applications could hit a substantial part of their recruitment base.

The impact will take time. Fewer births today would first affect kindergarten admissions in two or three years, then work through primary school. A smaller kindergarten intake can mean losing more than a decade of enrolment—and applications from younger siblings.

The most sought-after schools should remain better placed. With fewer eligible families, demand may concentrate further around established names. From what I’ve seen, US-born children of mainland Chinese parents still face tough odds at SAS.

Other schools will need to adapt. A class shrinking from 20 students to 15 loses a quarter of its tuition revenue, but staffing and campus costs don’t fall proportionately.

That gives schools a reason to revisit their admissions policies. For an otherwise eligible family with documents still being processed, could a school assess the application earlier, allow more time for submissions, or take a more flexible approach where permitted? I’m already seeing signs of this.

For families, it isn’t all bad news.

As schools work harder to attract suitable students, families gain more room for discussion. “Come back when your paperwork is complete” is gradually giving way to closer consideration of the family’s circumstances, the student’s academic profile, eligibility category, and timing.

That’s why “Does our passports rule us out?” rarely has a fixed answer. The child’s and parents’ documents, residency arrangements, location, and target school need to be considered together.

The crackdown won’t wipe out international schools. But some may have to stop assuming that new applicants will keep arriving.